Tuesday, January 03, 2006

NYT Article About the Economy Is a Pitiful Mishmash of Misunderstanding


By Elaine Meinel Supkis

Why does the New York Times which has a lot of money to spend to hire expert reporters end up hiring hacks who can't add 2+2 or darn socks? Seriously, one function of a newspaper is to instruct and explain important stuff and currency/trade games are extremely important!

From the New York Times:
As 2006 begins, the great American housing boom is going to weaken, if not collapse. But that will not hurt the economy very much, and growth will continue at a good pace.

Mortgage applications are down, and surely home sales will follow. Homes in many markets are far less affordable than they were a few years ago. There is a lively argument as to whether prices will fall sharply in some markets or simply level off for a few years, but another record year for the housing industry seems out of the question.
The article starts out with a big mistake. There is no "conventional wisdom" that housing collapses don't hurt the economy.

I have done housing all my life and when the housing booms end, and I have been through several now, the economy always stinks like Rocquefort cheese. A skunk on a drunk. Peee-u.

Anyone saying otherwise is insane or working for the NYT and is hideously young and trust me-------Don't go to the very young for fiscal advice! An old saying from old fogies is, all economic mistakes go in generational cycles. As soon as the last person who was an adult during the last fiscal collapse dies, the later generation imitates the same mistakes because no one is warning them off and boom. The economy collapses yet again!

I come from a family that has a long memory about these things, after all, the great stock market collapse of 1892 nearly wiped out my family, physically as well as financially! So we watch the boom/bust cycle very closely!

The rest of the NYT article flounders about aimlessly. One section really annoyed and amused me at its cluelessness.
So what happened? China did grudgingly allow a small devaluation of the dollar against the Chinese currency, albeit one so small that it made no difference at all. But the dollar rallied against the other major currencies. It ended 2005 up 14 percent against the euro and up 15 percent against the Japanese yen.

A year earlier, at the end of 2003, market seers were united in expecting long-term interest rates to rise. The Federal Reserve was going to increase short-term rates, and virtually everyone was sure that long-term rates would follow. But they actually fell in 2004, and the yield of the longest-dated Treasury, which matures in 2028, fell again in 2005, although yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 17 basis points, to 4.39 percent.

That rate was, however, lower than the two-year Treasury yield, which climbed 133 basis points, to 4.41 percent during the year. That yield-curve inversion, as bond jargon terms it, set off talk of a slower economy this year.
Japan, after negotiating Bush's surrender last October, thus ending once and for all time, the Japanese WWII defeat, turning it into 100% victory, went back into buying our debts/bouying up the value of the dollar even as we print currency at an increasingly mad rate. Readers of this blog remember that I talked about the earlier ASEAN meeting when Japan's finance minister said outloud that maybe it was time to stop buying American bonds. This triggered a frantic trip from Condi and then Bush came and signed all the protocols the Japanese wanted which is why they openly poke China in the eye now and laugh as they bow to their war criminal gods and which is why America looks the other way while the Asians we fought, sneer at us.

Since the dollars suctioned off by Japan goes into a black pit of nothingness to never appear in public again, both Japan and America have been greatly emboldened to do this all the way to infinity.

Infinity is where the fiscal dollar hits the Big Bang, ie, the Greatest Depression Ever Seen Since Rome Fell.

Japan's benefit in colluding with us to hide the true value of the dollar means we can't stop the Japanese from flooding our markets with their high-end goods. The last of our industries will now die and be replaced here at home with Japanese owned and operated businesses. We will be their peons and they, our masters.

The price we will pay is, we must spend all our money on the military. The military will fight Japanese wars like the one in the Middle East. Japan wants control of Iraqi oil and so they use their American agents to do this. Why?

Wellllll....CHINA. China is aggressively signing oil contracts and oil exploration agreements with all and sundry and have snuck into Iran and are operating more and more there as well as in Venezuela and other South American states and are now concentrating on Africa. The Chinese were getting very cozy with Saddam when the invasion happened over Chinese objections.

Note, Japan joined in the invasion despite homeland opposition just like in England.

We get zero, yes, zero oil from Iraq. We bleed there so the oil can be shipped to Japan and Europe. The profits from this don't even begin to match the public outlay in debts but this is all funny money because the Japanese are sucking up every penny of it and shoving it into their magical black fiscal hole in the form of bonds and our public debt has run over $8 trillion now and the traitors who literally sold out America to former dire enemies are openly talking about eliminating as many domestic programs as possible.

I heard through the grapevine, for example, that the Hurricane Katrina surivors will march on DC first week of February because they are going to be thrown into the streets and their pitiful homes will be razed. We lost a major city and think, the economy will boom.

Remember: Japan's hot housing market died when two things happened: the Gulf War I and the Kolbe earthquake. They had to rebuild a major city and this cost them a lot.

What with floods, fires, tornadoes and hurricanes, America is being hit with one hammer blow after another and add record high fuel costs and very high debts and you are staring at an economic storm of vast size. The collapsing housing market is going to be just one symptom of a raging fever. It doesn't cause these events, it is a gauge of what is going on. The inflation of the value of the dollar is expressed by inflating the value of a house because a dollar no longer buys what it used to buy which is why all things that are necessities are shooting up in price even as the price of all imports are dropping as our rivals keep the dollar's value way up past its true value.

In other words, I can keep doing cartoons and explaining in words in various forms to show what is going on here because it is hard to show since the entire media's heft is set to lie about all this and to live in a pretend world. Like those poor miners today who are probably dead, they were deep in the hole, digging industriously, unaware of the thunderstorm raging overhead until the lightning struck and it all blew up.
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